Evaluation of foot and mouth disease control measures: Simulating two endemic areas of Thailand.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease in Thailand, with outbreaks occurring every year. However, the effects of FMD control measures in Thailand have received little research attention. Epidemiological models have been widely used to evaluate FMD outbreak control, but such a model has never been developed for Thailand. We constructed a stochastic between-farm transmission model to evaluate FMD control measures. The epidemiological unit of the model was the farm, which could be in different states: susceptible, latent, undetected infectious, detected infectious and recovered. The between-farm transmission was calculated by the sum of distance-dependent transmission and trade network transmission using parameters derived from FMD outbreaks in 2016-2017. We used this model to simulate the outbreaks with and without the implementation of the following control measures: culling all animals on infected farms, ring vaccination, animal movement restrictions and isolation of infected farms. The control measures were evaluated by estimating the number of secondarily infected farms and the outbreak duration for each scenario. The model was simulated in two study areas located in the Lamphaya Klang subdistrict (high farm density) and the Bo Phloi district (low farm density). The effects of control measures differed between the two study areas. When farm density was high, rigid control measures were required to prevent a major outbreak. Among all options, culling the animals on infected farms resulted in the lowest number of infected farms and the shortest outbreak duration. In contrast, for an area with a low farm density, less stringent control measures were sufficient to control the usually minor outbreaks. The results indicate that different areas require a different approach to control an outbreak of FMD.

The Economic Value of Antimicrobial Use in Livestock Production.

(1) Introduction: Antimicrobial agents have played an important role in improving the productivity of worldwide livestock production by reducing the impact of livestock diseases. However, a major drawback of antimicrobial use is the emergence of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens in food-producing animals. To reduce the use of antimicrobials, it is important to know the economic value of the use of antimicrobials and factors that determine that economic value. (2) Results: A theoretical framework was developed to assess the economic value of antimicrobial use. Three situations were distinguished: firstly, a baseline model for a farm with a conventional production system; secondly, an extension of the baseline model that includes the impact of production system improvements; and thirdly, an extension of the baseline model that includes the impacts of risk and risk attitude. This framework shows that the economic value of antimicrobial use is negatively affected by the price of productive inputs and damage-abatement inputs, and positively affected by the output price, the input-output combination, the damage abatement effect, risk aversion and variance in profit. (3) Conclusions: The theoretical framework presented in this study shows that there are several factors that (can) affect the economic value of antimicrobial use. The knowledge about the effect of these factors can be utilized to affect the economic value of antimicrobials and, consequently, affect antimicrobial use.

Smallholder Broiler Farmers' Characteristics to Uptake Measures Against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Western Java.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 remains endemic in the Western Java smallholder broiler farms. This study aims to identify farmers and farm characteristics associated with farmers' motivations toward five different measures directed to HPAI: cleaning and disinfection (C&D), vaccination, reporting, and stamping-out with and without compensation. Through multi-stage sampling and a questionnaire, we collected data from 199 farmers in Western Java and applied descriptive analysis and logistic regression to evaluate the data. Most smallholder broiler farms had a production contract with a poultry company. Unexpectedly, we identified subtypes of price-contract (i.e., revenues based on contract selling price and live bird weight) and makloon-contract (i.e., revenues based on management fee per bird) schemes. We identified these new subtypes as extended price-contract and extended makloon-contract schemes. These extended subtypes included issues related to animal health management and payment schemes. The results show that most of the farmers in both extended types were highly motivated to implement C&D and vaccination. Business types and farmers' awareness of HPAI were significantly associated with a farmer's motivation to implement C&D. Farmers who had an awareness of HPAI were more likely to implement C&D. Although our models were insufficient to model the association of farmers' motivation to uptake preventive measures against HPAI in Western Java, this study identified significant characteristics that help improve HPAI control policy in Western Java. Our study suggests that farm business types and incentives through payment schemes and training may increase the uptake of preventive measures by farmers.

Can differences in innovativeness between European cross-border regions be explained by factors impeding cross-border business interaction?

Business interaction is important for innovation performance but may be challenging in cross-border regions. The objective of this research was to investigate the relation between factors that define cross-border business interaction and innovativeness. From the cross-border regional innovation systems literature, we operationalized thirty-five factors which potentially influence cross-border business interaction; these factors concern availability of science and knowledge bases, socio-cultural proximity, accessibility, institutional set-up, and governance. We conducted a survey focusing on these factors and analyzed the data using Cronbach's alpha and linear regression. The cross-border interaction factors identified in the survey results served as independent variables and the differences in innovativeness levels in different European cross-border regions served as our dependent variable. This study confirmed that differences in innovativeness levels between countries can be related to factors hindering cross-border business interaction.

Understanding the Motivation of Western Java Smallholder Broiler Farmers to Uptake Measures Against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).

Understanding broiler farmers' intention toward highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) control is important to design successful HPAI control programs. We used Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to identify factors (i.e., attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control) associated with the intentions of Western-Java small-scale broiler farmers toward implementing cleaning and disinfection (C&D), vaccination, reporting, and stamping-out without or with 50% compensation. For this, 203 Western-Java farmers were interviewed. The majority of the farmers had a positive intention to implement C&D (89%), reporting (88%), and vaccination (80%). A lower number had a positive intention to join stamping-out both with 50% compensation (67%) and without any compensation (53%). Farmers had a more positive attitude and subjective norm, but lower perceived behavioral control toward one or more of the intentions to implement measures. Attitude was positively associated with intentions to implement C&D and vaccination. Subjective norm of veterinarians of integrated companies was positively associated with intentions to implement vaccination. Perceived behavioral control (i.e., money and time) was positively associated with intentions to implement C&D, vaccination, and stamping-out without any compensation. Results suggest that farmers are in favor of implementing preventive measures (i.e., C&D and vaccination) on HPAI control over facing the consequences of control measures (i.e., stamping-out), and HPAI control programs should primarily focus on incentivizing farmers complemented by programs aiming to improve farmers' attitude. Thus, policy should be emphasized to preventive measures rather than control measures. Financial incentive-based instruments (e.g., price and performance bonus) can be used to increase the intention of farmers to implement C&D and vaccination. Trained vaccinators might help to save the time needed to vaccinate the entire flock can increase the intention of farmers to vaccinate their chickens. Also, informational instruments (e.g., education and communication) can be used to change and to improve the attitude of farmers to implement both measures.

Economic optimization of full-sib test group size and genotyping effort in a breeding program for Atlantic salmon.

BACKGROUND: Breeding companies may want to maximize the rate of genetic gain from their breeding program within a limited budget. In salmon breeding programs, full-sibs of selection candidates are subjected to performance tests for traits that cannot be recorded on selection candidates. While marginal gains in the aggregate genotype from phenotyping and genotyping more full-sibs per candidate decrease, costs increase linearly, which suggests that there is an optimum in the allocation of the budget among these activities. Here, we studied how allocation of the fixed budget to numbers of phenotyped and genotyped test individuals in performance tests can be optimized. METHODS: Gain in the aggregate genotype was a function of the numbers of full-sibs of selection candidates that were (1) phenotyped in a challenge test for sea lice resistance (2) phenotyped in a slaughter test (3) genotyped in the challenge test, and (4) genotyped in the slaughter test. Each of these activities was subject to budget constraints. Using a grid search, we optimized allocation of the budget among activities to maximize gain in the aggregate genotype. We performed sensitivity analyses on the maximum gain in the aggregate genotype and on the relative allocation of the budget among activities at the optimum. RESULTS: Maximum gain in the aggregate genotype was €386/ton per generation. The response surface for gain in the aggregate genotype was rather flat around the optimum, but it curved strongly near the extremes. Maximum gain was sensitive to the size of the budget and the relative emphasis on breeding goal traits, but less sensitive to the accuracy of genomic prediction and costs of phenotyping and genotyping. The relative allocation of budget among activities at the optimum was sensitive to costs of phenotyping and genotyping and the relative emphasis on breeding goal traits, but was less sensitive to the accuracy of genomic prediction and the size of the budget. CONCLUSIONS: There is an optimum allocation of budget to the numbers of full-sibs of selection candidates that are phenotyped and genotyped in performance tests that maximizes gain in the aggregate genotype. Although potential gains from optimizing group sizes and genotyping effort may be small, they come at no extra cost.

Global Prospects of the Cost-Efficiency of Broiler Welfare in Middle-Segment Production Systems.

In the 2000s, the idea of a so-called middle-segment arose in North-West Europe to address the criticism on intensive broiler production systems. Middle-segment systems being indoor housing of slower-growing broiler strains at a stocking density ≤38 kg/m2. Previous literature showed that Dutch middle-segment systems entail a relatively large gain in animal welfare at a relatively low increase in costs, i.e., have a high cost-efficiency. The question is to what extent these findings are applicable to other countries. Therefore, the aim of this study is to gain insight in the global prospects of middle-segment systems by exploring the cost-efficiency of these systems in other parts of the world. A set of representative countries, containing the Netherlands, United States and Brazil were selected. Cost-efficiency was defined as the ratio of the change in the level of animal welfare and the change in production costs. The level of animal welfare was measured by the Welfare Quality (WQ) index score. Data was collected from literature and consulting experts. Results show that in the Netherlands, United States and Brazil a change from conventional towards a middle-segment system improves animal welfare in a cost-efficient manner (the Netherlands 9.1, United States 24.2 and Brazil 12.1). Overall, it can be concluded that in general middle-segment production systems provide a considerable increase in animal welfare at a relatively small increase in production costs and therefore offer good prospects for a cost-efficient improvement of broiler welfare.

Transition from Conventional Broiler Meat to Meat from Production Concepts with Higher Animal Welfare: Experiences from The Netherlands.

Since the 1970s, animal welfare (AW) in Dutch broiler production has been criticized by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the general public. Despite the development of production concepts aimed at improving AW, the conventional concept, which satisfied only the minimum legal requirements, remained by far the most dominant one in the Dutch fresh broiler meat market. Then, quite suddenly, in 2014-2015 (i.e., within less than two years), a new broiler concept with increased AW was introduced, which included a slower growing animal, more space, and an improved light regime. This alternative completely replaced the by then conventional concept. The aim of this study was to investigate the origin, causes, and driving forces of this sudden change. Popular and scientific literature, as well as interviews with key players in this transition process, were used to re-construct the chronology of events and draw the main and decisive findings. The latter include: (1) The availability of a cost-efficient alternative to conventional concepts, (2) a basic willingness to change within the entire value chain (including consumers), (3) initiating and triggering actions by NGOs, (4) decisive initiatives by retailers and (5) simultaneous introduction of the new concept and replacement of the conventional concept (i.e., depriving the consumer of a cheaper choice alternative). The result was a real transition of the Dutch fresh meat market without negative purchasing responses of the consumers. It was concluded that, although the Dutch fresh broiler meat market only included 30% of total domestic production, the existence of the abovementioned decisive factors could bring about an important change in favor of AW within a short period of time.

A Systematic Evaluation of Measures Against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Indonesia.

Over the past years, many different control measures have been implemented to prevent HPAI infection. The national plan with numerous measures lead to problems in terms of prioritization and budget allocation. Our study objectives are to (i) establish an inventory of measures on HPAI control in Indonesia since the first actions were taken in 2004, (ii) evaluate preferences for different HPAI control measures applied in the West Java province at the district level during 2013-2017, and (iii) establish a basis for further qualitative and quantitative research to improve control for an endemic HPAI in Indonesia. This research was carried out according to the following five steps (i) development of an HPAI management framework for an endemic state, (ii) inventorization of measures directed at HPAI and description of the development of HPAI in Indonesia, (iii) development of a questionnaire for the experts involved, (iv) systematic evaluation of preferences for short- and long-term HPAI strategies and measures applied in the West Java Province based on expert opinion, and (v) data analysis. The study systematically evaluated in total 27 measures. The results of this study show that the animal disease management framework is helpful as a systematic structure to distinguish and evaluate strategies and measures. In our framework, we defined the following strategies: prevention, monitoring, control, mitigation, eradication, and human protection. The findings of our research show that the primary aims of the government were to safeguard humans from HPAI transmission by mitigating HPAI disease in livestock. The measures with the highest priority were preventive vaccination of poultry, biosecurity, and stamping-out infected flocks. This showed that the government predominantly chose a vaccination-based HPAI mitigation strategy. However, the chosen strategy has a low implementation feasibility. A collaboration between the responsible stakeholders farmers may increase the feasibility of the chosen strategy in the future. Furthermore, our findings provide a basis for research into the motivation of farmers to implement different measures as well as into the expected impact of different measures to develop an effective and efficient mitigation approach.

Derivation of the economic value of R0 for macroparasitic diseases and application to sea lice in salmon.

BACKGROUND: Macroparasites, such as ticks, lice, and helminths, are a concern in livestock and aquaculture production, and can be controlled by genetic improvement of the host population. Genetic improvement should aim at reducing the rate at which parasites spread across the farmed population. This rate is determined by the basic reproduction ratio, i.e. [Formula: see text], which is the appropriate breeding goal trait. This study aims at providing a method to derive the economic value of [Formula: see text]. METHODS: Costs of a disease are the sum of production losses and expenditures on disease control. Genetic improvement of [Formula: see text] lowers the loss-expenditure frontier. Its economic effect depends on whether the management strategy is optimized or not. The economic value may be derived either from the reduction in losses with constant expenditures or from the reduction in expenditures with constant losses. RESULTS: When [Formula: see text] ≤ 1, the economic value of a further reduction is zero because there is no risk of a major epidemic. When [Formula: see text] > 1 and management is optimized, the economic value increases with decreasing values of [Formula: see text], because both the mean number of parasites per host and frequency of treatments decrease at an increasing rate when [Formula: see text] decreases. When [Formula: see text] > 1 and management is not optimized, the economic value depends on whether genetic improvement is used for reducing expenditures or losses. For sea lice in salmon, the economic value depends on a reduction in expenditures with constant losses, and is estimated to be 0.065€/unit [Formula: see text]/kg production. DISCUSSION: Response to selection for measures of disease prevalence cannot be predicted from quantitative genetic theory alone. Moreover, many studies fail to address the issue of whether genetic improvement results in reduced losses or expenditures. Using [Formula: see text] as the breeding goal trait, weighed by its appropriate economic value, avoids these issues. CONCLUSION: When management is optimized, the economic value increases with decreasing values of [Formula: see text] (until the threshold of [Formula: see text], where it drops to zero). When management is not optimized, the economic value depends on whether genetic improvement is used for reduced expenditures or production losses. For sea lice in salmon, the economic value is estimated to be 0.065 €/unit [Formula: see text]/kg production.

Financial evaluation of different vaccination strategies for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in The Netherlands in 2008.

BACKGROUND: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in The Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of The Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficiency.

Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of uncertain factors in a scenario tree model for classical swine fever introduction.

Introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a continuing threat to the pig production sector in the European Union. A scenario tree model was developed to obtain more insight into the main risk factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (P(CSFV)). As this model contains many uncertain input parameters, sensitivity analysis was used to indicate which of these parameters influence model results most. Group screening combined with the statistical techniques of design of experiments and meta-modeling was applied to detect the most important uncertain input parameters among a total of 257 parameters. The response variable chosen was the annual P(CSFV) into the Netherlands. Only 128 scenario calculations were needed to specify the final meta-model. A consecutive one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis was performed with the main effects of this meta-model to explore their impact on the ranking of risk factors contributing most to the annual P(CSFV). The results indicated that model outcome is most sensitive to the uncertain input parameters concerning the expected number of classical swine fever epidemics in Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom and the probability that CSFV survives in an empty livestock truck traveling over a distance of 0-900 km.

Scenario tree modeling to analyze the probability of classical swine fever virus introduction into member states of the European Union.

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.

Elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel: formal process and application in animal health.

This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process's requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task. Individual experts' assessments on the variables of interest, cast in the form of subjective probability density functions, are elicited with a minimal demand for normative expertise. The individual experts' assessments are aggregated into a single probability density function per variable, thereby weighting the experts according to their expertise. Elicitation techniques proposed include the Delphi technique for the qualitative assessment task and the ELI method for the actual quantitative assessment task. Appropriately, the Classical model was used to weight the experts' assessments in order to construct a single distribution per variable. Applying this model, the experts' quality typically was based on their performance on seed variables. An application of the proposed protocol in the broad and multidisciplinary field of animal health is presented. Results of this expert judgment process showed that the proposed protocol in combination with the proposed elicitation and analysis techniques resulted in valid data on the (continuous) variables of interest. In conclusion, the proposed protocol for a formal expert judgment process aimed at the elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel provided satisfactory results. Hence, this protocol might be useful for expert judgment studies in other broad and/or multidisciplinary fields of interest.